Sample Deliverable

Automation Opportunity Map

Healthcare Revenue Cycle Management Company — RPA & AI Opportunities Across the RCM Lifecycle

Date: 2026-05-30 · Prepared by: Resolvix · Status: Sample Deliverable
Deliverable type: AI & Automation — Automation Opportunity Map (~$825)
Industry: Healthcare Revenue Cycle Management

About this sample. This is one example of what a successful Resolvix deliverable looks like at this scope and type — not a template that every engagement follows. Your expert brings their own expertise and judgment to the work: the structure, the emphasis, which angles they dig into, and how they organize their findings will all vary based on your industry, your specific question, and where the research leads. What stays consistent across every engagement is the standard: analysis grounded in evidence, prioritized recommendations, concrete action steps, and a phased implementation plan. All company names, figures, and scenarios in this sample are illustrative.


Executive Summary

ClearPath Revenue Solutions (illustrative; billing and collections for 22 hospital systems, processing approximately 4.2M claims annually, $280M in annual collections managed) operates across four primary RCM functions: prior authorization, denial management, payment posting, and patient collections. This map identifies and prioritizes 16 discrete automation opportunities across these four functions, ranked by ease of automation, ROI, implementation time, and risk.

Top three opportunities by composite score:
1. Payment posting automation (RPA + OCR) — Highest ease of automation, fastest payback (under 6 months), lowest risk. Estimated value: $3.1M–$4.4M annually.
2. Prior authorization status checks (RPA) — High volume, high rule consistency, strong ROI. Estimated value: $1.8M–$2.6M annually.
3. Denial root cause classification (ML classification model) — High ROI, moderate implementation complexity. Estimated value: $2.2M–$3.1M annually.

Total addressable automation value across all 16 opportunities: $12.8M–$18.4M annually.
Estimated implementation investment (3-year program): $4.2M–$6.8M.
Net 3-year value: $24.2M–$40.4M.


Company Context

Attribute Detail
Hospital system clients 22 (mix of regional health systems and community hospitals)
Annual claims processed 4.2M (across all payers and care settings)
Annual collections managed $280M
Staff 380 FTEs (billing specialists, AR specialists, denial management, patient advocates)
Technology platform Waystar (claims management), Cerner integration (primary EHR), Epic integration (secondary), nThrive analytics
Prior auth volume ~18,000 requests/month
Denial rate 11.4% (industry average: 8–10%; ClearPath's clients are above average due to payer mix)
Payment posting volume ~310,000 remittance line items/month (mix of ERAs and paper EOBs)
Patient balance accounts ~95,000 active accounts at any time
Current automation Limited: some EDI 835 ERA auto-posting, basic eligibility verification automation. No ML models in production.

Automation Taxonomy

For precision in this analysis, automation approaches are categorized as follows:


Opportunity Matrix

Scoring Dimensions

Each opportunity is scored 1–5 on four dimensions:

Composite score = EA × 0.30 + ROI × 0.35 + IS × 0.20 + RS × 0.15


Function 1: Prior Authorization

# Opportunity Automation Type EA ROI IS RS Composite Est. Annual Value
PA-1 Auth status check via payer portal (automated polling) RPA 5 4 5 5 4.60 $1.8M–$2.6M
PA-2 Auth submission for high-approval-rate procedure codes RPA + rules engine 4 4 4 4 4.00 $900K–$1.4M
PA-3 Clinical documentation attachment (auto-pull from EHR) RPA + OCR 3 3 3 4 3.15 $600K–$900K
PA-4 Denial prediction pre-submission (ML classification) ML Classification 2 5 2 4 3.35 $1.1M–$1.7M
PA-5 Auth appeal letter drafting for high-frequency denial reasons NLP / Gen AI 3 3 3 3 3.00 $400K–$650K

Function 2: Denial Management

# Opportunity Automation Type EA ROI IS RS Composite Est. Annual Value
DM-1 Denial root cause classification (by remark code + payer + procedure) ML Classification 3 5 3 4 3.95 $2.2M–$3.1M
DM-2 Automatic resubmission of correctable claim edits (wrong modifier, missing NPI) RPA + rules engine 5 4 5 4 4.35 $1.1M–$1.6M
DM-3 Underpayment detection (contractual vs. actual payment comparison) RPA + rate table lookup 4 4 4 5 4.15 $800K–$1.2M
DM-4 Appeal letter generation for clinical necessity denials NLP / Gen AI 3 4 3 3 3.40 $750K–$1.1M
DM-5 Appeal prioritization by expected recovery value × win probability Predictive ML 2 4 2 5 3.15 $600K–$950K
DM-6 Payer-specific denial pattern alerting (anomaly detection) ML / Statistical 3 3 3 5 3.30 $300K–$500K

Function 3: Payment Posting

# Opportunity Automation Type EA ROI IS RS Composite Est. Annual Value
PP-1 ERA auto-posting (835 EDI file, fully structured) RPA (rule-based) 5 5 5 5 5.00 $3.1M–$4.4M
PP-2 Paper EOB / PDF remittance digitization and posting OCR + RPA 4 4 4 5 4.20 $900K–$1.3M
PP-3 Contractual adjustment posting (auto-calculate from payer contract terms) RPA + contract database 3 4 3 4 3.55 $450K–$700K
PP-4 Exception queue triage (route unpostable items by reason code) ML Classification 3 3 3 4 3.15 $300K–$500K

Function 4: Patient Collections

# Opportunity Automation Type EA ROI IS RS Composite Est. Annual Value
PC-1 Propensity-to-pay scoring for patient balance accounts Predictive ML 3 4 3 5 3.70 $700K–$1.1M
PC-2 Automated payment plan offer via SMS/email (rule-based threshold) RPA + communication platform 4 3 4 4 3.55 $350K–$550K
PC-3 Charity care eligibility screening (income/asset trigger rules) RPA + external data 3 3 4 5 3.45 $200K–$350K

Prioritized Opportunity Rankings (Composite Score)

Rank # Opportunity Score Type Est. Annual Value
1 PP-1 ERA auto-posting 5.00 RPA $3.1M–$4.4M
2 PA-1 Auth status check polling 4.60 RPA $1.8M–$2.6M
3 DM-2 Correctable claim auto-resubmission 4.35 RPA + rules $1.1M–$1.6M
4 PP-2 Paper EOB digitization + posting 4.20 OCR + RPA $900K–$1.3M
5 DM-3 Underpayment detection 4.15 RPA + lookup $800K–$1.2M
6 PA-2 Auth submission (high-approval codes) 4.00 RPA + rules $900K–$1.4M
7 DM-1 Denial root cause classification 3.95 ML $2.2M–$3.1M
8 PC-1 Propensity-to-pay scoring 3.70 Predictive ML $700K–$1.1M
9 PP-3 Contractual adjustment posting 3.55 RPA + contract DB $450K–$700K
10 PC-2 Payment plan auto-offer 3.55 RPA + comms $350K–$550K
11 PA-4 Pre-submission denial prediction 3.35 ML $1.1M–$1.7M
12 DM-4 Appeal letter generation (clinical) 3.40 Gen AI $750K–$1.1M
13 DM-6 Payer denial pattern alerting 3.30 ML / Statistical $300K–$500K
14 PC-3 Charity care eligibility screening 3.45 RPA + data $200K–$350K
15 DM-5 Appeal prioritization by recovery value 3.15 Predictive ML $600K–$950K
16 PP-4 Exception queue triage 3.15 ML $300K–$500K
17 PA-3 Clinical doc auto-attach 3.15 RPA + OCR $600K–$900K
18 PA-5 Auth appeal letter drafting 3.00 Gen AI $400K–$650K

Deep-Dive: Top 5 Opportunities

#1 — ERA Auto-Posting (PP-1) — Score: 5.00

Current state: ClearPath processes approximately 310,000 remittance line items per month. Approximately 58% arrive as 835 EDI electronic remittance advice (ERA) files. Of these, only 40% currently auto-post — the rest require manual review due to missing crosswalks, unmatched claim numbers, or exception codes. Manual posting costs approximately $0.85–$1.20 per line item (blended labor rate + overhead). The 60% of ERA line items requiring manual touch represent 108,000 items/month × $1.00 avg = $108K/month in manual posting cost.

Automation approach: An RPA bot connects to the clearinghouse (Waystar), retrieves 835 files as they arrive, parses each remittance detail record, matches to the open claim in Waystar (by ICN or claim number), verifies the payment against expected allowable (from contract rate table), and posts if match is clean. Exception handling rules route unpostable items to a human queue with the reason pre-classified (unmatched claim, zero-pay, overpayment, payer adjustment). The bot runs continuously, eliminating posting lag.

The auto-post rate is projected to rise from 40% to 88–92% with proper exception rule tuning. Residual exceptions (~8–12% of ERA volume) are complex cases (coordination of benefits, claim disputes, capitation reconciliation) that genuinely require human judgment.

Value calculation:
- Current manual ERA volume: 108,000 items/month
- Post-automation manual volume: ~22,000 items/month (8% exception rate on 275,000 ERA items)
- Items eliminated from manual queue: 86,000/month
- Cost savings: 86,000 × $1.00/item = $86,000/month = $1.03M/year
- Posting lag elimination: faster posting improves cash application timing, reducing days in AR by an estimated 2.1 days on ERA volume — at $280M annual collections, 2.1 days = $1.6M–$2.4M improvement in working capital / interest cost avoided
- Paper EOB savings (see PP-2 below) are separate

Implementation: UiPath or Automation Anywhere bot — estimated 8–12 weeks development and testing. Waystar has an API that allows programmatic 835 retrieval, avoiding screen-scraping brittleness. Exception classification rules are documented by the existing posting team leads — a 3-day workshop captures 90% of the exception logic needed.

Risk: Low. Auto-posting logic applies only when all match criteria are met; any uncertainty routes to human. No patient safety implications. Payer relations are unaffected (ERA is the payer's own remittance file). Audit trail maintained in Waystar.


#2 — Auth Status Check Polling (PA-1) — Score: 4.60

Current state: ClearPath manages approximately 18,000 prior authorization requests per month across 22 client hospital systems. Auth status checking — logging into payer portals to check whether a submitted auth has been approved, pended, or denied — is performed manually by auth specialists. Average time per status check: 4–7 minutes (login, navigation, status lookup, documentation). Each auth is checked an average of 2.8 times before resolution. Total manual status check volume: ~50,000 checks/month × 5.5 min average = 4,583 hours/month. At $28/hour loaded: $128,333/month = $1.54M/year in manual status check labor.

Automation approach: RPA bots are configured for each major payer portal (BCBS, UnitedHealth, Cigna, Aetna, Humana — these five represent ~72% of ClearPath's payer mix). Bots log in with service account credentials, navigate to auth status screens, extract status, copy denial reason codes if applicable, and write results back to the auth tracking system (Waystar or client EHR). Bot run schedule: every 4 hours during business hours.

Payer portals are the primary technical risk — they change UI layouts without notice, which breaks screen-scraping bots. Mitigation: contract with RPA vendor (UiPath) for portal maintenance SLA; maintain human fallback for any portal where the bot breaks. Target: 85%+ of status checks automated sustainably.

Value:
- 85% automation × 50,000 checks/month × 5.5 min × $28/hr = $108K/month = $1.30M/year
- Auth specialists redirect time to complex pended auths, clinical peer-to-peer calls, and appeal submissions — estimated incremental revenue recovery from higher-quality human attention: $500K–$1.3M/year


#3 — Correctable Claim Auto-Resubmission (DM-2) — Score: 4.35

Current state: ClearPath's denial rate is 11.4% across 4.2M annual claims = approximately 479,000 denied claims per year. Analysis of denial reason codes shows that approximately 23% of denials are "correctable" — they resulted from technical billing errors that do not require clinical review: wrong modifier, missing NPI, incorrect place of service code, unbundling errors, and duplicate claim flags. These 110,000 correctable denials represent a significant opportunity because the correction logic is deterministic (if denial code = CO-4 and procedure code is X, then add modifier YY and resubmit).

Automation approach: A rules engine maps denial remark codes to correction actions. An RPA bot retrieves denied claims from the denial work queue, identifies correctable denials by remark code, applies the correction action from the rules table, validates the corrected claim against edit logic, and resubmits. The rule table is maintained by a denial management lead — the bot applies the rules, but humans author and update them. Exceptions (ambiguous denials, unfamiliar remark codes, high-dollar claims above a threshold) route to human specialist queue.

Value: 110,000 correctable denials/year × 65% recovery rate (after resubmission, some payers deny again) × average net recovery per claim $180 = $12.9M in additional collections. Correction automation also eliminates the manual labor: 110,000 denials × 12 min manual correction time × $32/hr loaded cost = $704K/year in labor savings. Net of processing cost, total value: $1.1M–$1.6M (conservative estimate factoring in recovery uncertainty and rebilling costs).


#4 — Paper EOB Digitization + Posting (PP-2) — Score: 4.20

Current state: 42% of ClearPath's remittance volume (approximately 130,000 line items/month) arrives as paper Explanation of Benefits documents or PDF remittances from payers that do not support EDI 835. These are physically received, sorted, and manually keyed into Waystar by a team of 14 posting specialists. Manual paper posting costs $2.20–$3.10 per line item (significantly higher than ERA posting due to data entry burden). Monthly cost: 130,000 × $2.65 avg = $344,500/month = $4.1M/year.

Automation approach: Two-stage pipeline. Stage 1: Intelligent document processing (IDP) using a purpose-built document AI (AWS Textract, Google Document AI, or ABBYY FlexiCapture) trained on ClearPath's specific EOB formats from the top 30 payer sources (representing ~85% of paper volume). The IDP model extracts: payer name, claim number, patient name, DOS, procedure codes, billed amount, allowed amount, paid amount, adjustment reason codes. Field extraction accuracy on trained payer formats: 94–97%. Stage 2: Extracted data is validated against business rules (billed = allowed + adjustment) and posted via the same ERA posting bot as PP-1. Exceptions route to posting specialist queue with extracted fields pre-populated (specialist validates and corrects, not re-keys from scratch).

This is OCR + ML (document classification + field extraction) — not pure RPA. The model must be trained and periodically retrained as payer EOB formats change.

Value: Post-automation, paper line item cost drops from $2.65 to ~$0.45 (IDP infrastructure cost + residual human exception handling). Net savings: $2.20/item × 130,000 items/month × 12 = $3.43M/year. (Note: this includes some value already counted in PP-1 if treated as combined platform; modeled separately here for clarity.)


#5 — Underpayment Detection (DM-3) — Score: 4.15

Current state: ClearPath manages payer contracts for 22 hospital systems, each with different contracted rates by payer and procedure code. When a payer remits less than the contracted rate, this is a contractual underpayment — recoverable but currently caught only sporadically. The process requires a specialist to look up the applicable contract rate, compare to the remitted amount, and flag if the difference exceeds a threshold. With 310,000 remittance line items/month, only ~15,000 (5%) are manually spot-checked for underpayments.

Automation approach: Build a contract rate database (loaded from all 22 client payer contracts — one-time data entry effort of approximately 120 hours). RPA bot queries the rate database at the point of payment posting for every remittance line item and compares to the actual paid amount. Any payment below contractual rate by more than $25 is automatically flagged as an underpayment and routed to a collector queue with the contractual rate, actual payment, and recovery amount pre-calculated. Specialist contacts payer for correction.

Value: Industry benchmark: underpayments represent 1–3% of gross collections at typical RCM operations. At $280M, that is $2.8M–$8.4M. ClearPath's current recovery rate (checking 5% of volume) is estimated to capture only 8–12% of the underpayment pool. Full automation captures ~65–75% (some underpayments are legitimate adjustments requiring clinical appeal, not contractual corrections). Incremental recovery: $800K–$1.2M annually.


Opportunities Not Recommended at This Time

DM-4 / PA-5 — AI-generated appeal letters (Gen AI): The technical capability exists (GPT-4o or Claude can draft clinically credible appeal letters given a denial reason, clinical notes, and payer guidelines). However, the regulatory environment for AI-drafted clinical appeal letters is evolving rapidly. CMS and several state insurance commissioners are actively reviewing whether AI-generated appeals require disclosure. The risk of a payer or regulator challenge to undisclosed AI appeals is non-trivial. Recommend: defer to Month 12 after legal review and market consensus on disclosure requirements. The value is real ($750K–$1.1M) but the risk-adjusted timing argues for patience.

DM-5 — Appeal prioritization by recovery value × win probability (Predictive ML): High potential but requires 12–18 months of enriched historical data (including appeal outcomes, payer response times, and clinical detail) to train a reliable model. The data currently exists in disconnected systems and would require a data engineering effort before modeling can begin. This is a Year 2+ opportunity after foundational RPA automation creates cleaner, more complete process data.


Automation Build vs. Buy Recommendation

Opportunity Group Build / Buy Recommended Platform Rationale
RPA (PA-1, DM-2, DM-3, PP-1, PC-2, PC-3) Buy platform + configure UiPath (preferred) or Automation Anywhere RPA platforms are commodity; don't build bots from scratch. UiPath has the strongest healthcare RCM bot marketplace with pre-built Waystar and Epic connectors.
OCR/IDP (PP-2) Buy AWS Textract + custom training, or ABBYY FlexiCapture ABBYY has the strongest pre-trained EOB extraction models in healthcare. AWS is cheaper and more flexible if ClearPath has AWS infrastructure already.
ML Classification (DM-1, PP-4) Build (in-house or SI-assisted) Scikit-learn / XGBoost on AWS SageMaker Denial classification is highly specific to ClearPath's payer mix and client portfolio — a generic model won't work. Must train on own labeled data.
Predictive ML (PC-1, DM-5) Buy (SaaS) Waystar's built-in propensity scoring or Collectly Don't build propensity scoring from scratch. Waystar has a native patient propensity module. Evaluate fit before building.
Gen AI (DM-4, PA-5) Defer See above.

Recommendations

  1. Begin with ERA auto-posting (PP-1) and auth status check polling (PA-1) simultaneously — these are pure RPA, lowest risk, and fund the rest of the program through rapid payback. Both can be in production within 12 weeks. Combined annual value: $3.1M–$5.0M. At an estimated $280K–$380K combined implementation cost, payback is under 5 months.

  2. Build the payer contract rate database (underpayment detection prerequisite) in parallel with the first RPA deployments. This is a data work project, not a technology project — it requires a specialist to load contracted rates from 22 clients × their payer contracts into a structured database. It is tedious, important, and must be done before DM-3 can be automated. Assign a dedicated resource for 6 weeks. The database also enables downstream analytics (contract performance benchmarking by client).

  3. Invest in a purpose-built denial root cause classification model (DM-1) as the first ML project. This is the highest-ROI ML opportunity and enables all downstream denial management intelligence. To build this model: extract 18+ months of denial records from Waystar (claim ID, procedure code, payer, remark code, denial reason, resolution outcome); label a training set of 15,000+ records (denial root cause: medical necessity, prior auth, technical edit, timely filing, coordination of benefits, etc.); train and validate an XGBoost classifier. Expected accuracy: 87–93% on well-represented denial categories. Time to production: 4–6 months with a data scientist. This model unlocks DM-4 (appeal drafting) and DM-5 (appeal prioritization) in Year 2.

  4. Do not deploy AI-generated clinical appeal letters until legal review is complete and a disclosure policy is adopted. The value is real; the regulatory risk is real. A 30-day legal review of CMS guidance, applicable state insurance regulations, and relevant payer contract terms will clarify the disclosure obligations. If disclosure is required, the product still works — it just adds a "Prepared with AI assistance" notation. But this decision should be made deliberately, not discovered reactively during a payer audit.

  5. Consolidate on UiPath as the RPA platform for all bot development. ClearPath has no current RPA platform — this is an opportunity to standardize from day one rather than inheriting a multi-vendor bot estate. UiPath's healthcare RCM accelerators (pre-built Waystar, Epic, and payer portal interaction templates) reduce development time by 40–60% vs. building from scratch. Negotiate an enterprise license covering all bots deployed in the first 18 months.

  6. Treat the patient propensity-to-pay model (PC-1) as a near-term buy decision, not a build decision. Waystar includes a patient financial engagement module with built-in propensity scoring. Before committing engineering resources to a custom model, run a 90-day pilot of Waystar's built-in scoring against ClearPath's patient collections data. If Waystar's score lifts collection rate by ≥ 8%, the buy decision is justified and frees data science capacity for higher-value custom work (DM-1).

  7. Build an automation center of excellence (CoE) before deploying more than 3 bots. A CoE is a 2–3 person internal team responsible for: bot development standards, exception monitoring, retraining schedules, and change management when payer portals update. Without a CoE, bot breakage goes undetected for days (a portal UI change that breaks the auth status bot means 18,000 checks/month go unprocessed). The CoE also builds the institutional capability to sustain and expand the automation program independently rather than depending on external vendors for every change.


Action Steps

# Action Owner Time Tied To
1 Negotiate and execute UiPath enterprise license (healthcare RCM tier) CTO / CFO 0–21 days Rec 5
2 Assign 2 FTEs to automation CoE; define bot development standards CTO 0–21 days Rec 7
3 Begin ERA auto-posting bot development (PP-1) — Waystar API integration CoE + UiPath team 0–12 weeks Rec 1
4 Begin auth status check bot development for top 5 payers (PA-1) CoE + UiPath team 0–12 weeks Rec 1
5 Assign specialist to payer contract database build (6-week sprint) VP Revenue Integrity 15 days–7 weeks Rec 2
6 Commission legal review of AI-generated appeal letter disclosure obligations General Counsel 0–30 days Rec 4
7 Evaluate Waystar patient propensity scoring: 90-day pilot on 10K patient accounts VP Patient Accounts 30 days–4 months Rec 6
8 ERA auto-posting bot goes live (shadow mode — parallel processing against manual baseline) CoE Week 10–12 Rec 1
9 Auth status check bot goes live (BCBS + UHC first, then expand) CoE Week 10–12 Rec 1
10 Shadow mode validation complete; bots move to production CoE + Operations Week 14–16 Rec 1
11 Begin correctable claim auto-resubmission bot (DM-2) development CoE Month 3 Rec 5
12 Begin underpayment detection bot (DM-3) development (requires contract DB complete) CoE Month 3 Rec 2
13 Extract denial data from Waystar; begin labeling for DM-1 classification model Data Science / CoE Month 3 Rec 3
14 ABBYY / AWS Textract evaluation for paper EOB digitization (PP-2) CTO Month 3–4
15 DM-1 denial classification model training begins Data Scientist Month 4 Rec 3
16 DM-2 and DM-3 bots go live CoE Month 5–6
17 Waystar propensity pilot results reviewed; buy/build decision VP Patient Accounts + CFO Month 4 Rec 6
18 DM-1 model validation and production deployment Data Scientist + CoE Month 6–8 Rec 3
19 Legal review results presented; AI appeal letter policy adopted or deferred General Counsel + CEO Month 2 Rec 4
20 12-month automation program review: value captured vs. projected; Phase 2 roadmap CTO + CFO Month 12

Implementation Plan

Phase 1: RPA Foundation (Months 1–6)

Objective: Deploy the four highest-scoring RPA opportunities (PP-1, PA-1, DM-2, DM-3) and establish the automation CoE and bot governance infrastructure.

Milestones:
- Month 1: UiPath license executed; CoE staffed; bot development standards documented
- Month 2: ERA posting bot (PP-1) and auth status bot (PA-1) in parallel development; contract rate database underway
- Month 3: PP-1 and PA-1 in shadow mode; correctable claim bot (DM-2) development begins
- Month 4: PP-1 and PA-1 in production; shadow mode results reviewed
- Month 5: DM-2 and DM-3 bots in shadow mode; PP-2 vendor selection complete
- Month 6: DM-2 and DM-3 in production; PP-2 IDP development begins

Go/No-Go Gate (Month 4 — first two bots to production):
- ERA auto-posting accuracy ≥ 96% on shadow mode (match to manual posting on same remittance set)
- Auth status check accuracy ≥ 99% (correct status, correct claim match) — higher bar because errors delay patient care
- Exception rate within projected range (12% ERA, 8% auth)
- No bot-related posting errors reaching patient accounts

Success Criteria at Phase 1 End (Month 6):
- ERA auto-post rate ≥ 88%
- Auth status check labor hours reduced ≥ 80%
- Correctable denial resubmission cycle time ≤ 24 hours (vs. 3–5 days manual)
- Underpayment recovery rate ≥ 3% of remittance volume identified and flagged
- Combined Phase 1 annualized value ≥ $6.5M (run-rate on PP-1, PA-1, DM-2, DM-3)

Budget Phase 1: $1.1M–$1.6M (UiPath enterprise $280K/year, development labor $600K–$900K, infrastructure $120K–$180K, CoE staffing $200K/year ongoing)


Phase 2: ML Intelligence Layer (Months 4–12)

Objective: Deploy the denial classification ML model, paper EOB IDP pipeline, patient propensity model (buy or build), and establish the data infrastructure for Year 2 predictive analytics.

Milestones:
- Month 4: Denial data extraction and labeling sprint complete (15,000+ labeled records)
- Month 5: DM-1 model training begins; paper EOB IDP pilot (ABBYY or Textract on 10,000 EOBs)
- Month 6: IDP accuracy validation; go/no-go for full paper EOB deployment
- Month 7: Paper EOB IDP in production; DM-1 model in internal validation
- Month 8: DM-1 model production deployment; denial classification integrated with Waystar work queue routing
- Month 9: Patient propensity model (Waystar built-in or custom, per Month 4 pilot decision) in production
- Month 10: Appeal prioritization logic (rules-based, using DM-1 output) deployed
- Month 12: Full Phase 2 review; Year 2 roadmap (DM-5, DM-4, DM-6) scoped

Go/No-Go Gate (Month 8 — DM-1 classification model):
- Model accuracy ≥ 87% on holdout set across all major denial categories
- False classification rate for medical necessity denials (highest stakes) ≤ 5%
- Model explainability: each classification includes top 3 contributing features (required for specialist trust and audit)
- Retrospective validation: model applied to 3 months of historical denials; distribution of predicted vs. actual root cause within 5% on all major categories

Success Criteria at Phase 2 End (Month 12):
- Paper EOB posting rate ≥ 85% automated (vs. 0% baseline)
- Denial classification accuracy ≥ 87% in production (ongoing monitoring)
- Patient propensity model: collection rate improvement ≥ 8% on propensity-scored vs. control accounts
- All Phase 1 bots operating within exception rate targets with no manual monitoring required
- Combined program annualized value ≥ $11M (run-rate across all deployed automations)

Budget Phase 2: $1.4M–$2.1M (data science FTE $180K/year, IDP software $240K/year, ML infrastructure $120K, development labor $500K–$900K, model validation $100K–$200K)

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